I remember my father teaching me about the economic cycle.

It’s really simple, he told me. It goes like this. Every 5 years each economy experiences a cycle of boom to bust.

That’s 5 years from peak to trough. It’s just gravity. As hard as economists and politicians try to find ways to smooth the cycle they fail.

Whenever we reach the top of the cycle we get cocky and assume that growth will continue for ever. Equally, when we’re at the bottom of the cycle we get all depressed and assume that growth will never come again (which is where we are now). Both are wrong.

This time around it’s worse than usual. We saw an extended boom through the noughties, then experienced an extended bust over the last 2 years.

The Western world probably hit the bottom of the cycle in the spring of 2009. Which means we’re more likely to see an extended growth cycle (not a double dip recession as gloomers predict) that should peak in 2014 – then its down again folks.

Manage your business to the cycle and you should be OK. Defy gravity at your peril.